9.0 Mw earthquake a remote possibility Kashmir Seismic Gap: Prof Bhat
19/05/2015
Jammu May 18: In the backdrop of the recent devastating Earthquake that created havoc in the Himalayan Region of Nepal, an Awareness Lecture on Earthquake on the topic "Earth Quake Threat Perception in India-Myth or Reality" was organized by the Department of Students Welfare, University of Jammu here this morning. The lecture was organized on the desire of Prof. R.D. Sharma, Vice Chancellor, University of Jammu.
A distinguished geologist and earthquake expert Prof G M Bhat, through his power point presentation dwelt on history of the major earthquakes that occurred in the Himalaya and elsewhere and the intensity of destruction they caused during the past few centuries.
Referring to the claim made by Geology Roger Bilham, Professor of geological sciences (Sesismologist), University of Colorado that possible magnitude 9.0 Mw mega quake can affect the Kashmir region.
Prof. Bhat said that as per Bilham a major quake is likely to trigger landslides that could dam the Jhelum River, which drains from the Kashmir Valley into Pakistan. That could put the Kashmir Valley under water within three months - and would also threaten disastrous flooding in Pakistan if the waters were released too quickly.
In this region, the Indian plate is slowly burrowing under the Tibetan plateau. Bilham was looking for where the relative movement of the Tibetan plateau was slowest, as this indicates where compression is building up, and a rupture is eventually likely to occur.
He had expected this to be in the Pir Panjal Range, to the south of the Kashmir Valley, but instead it was in the Zanskar Range to the north.
This means that the zone likely to rupture when a quake eventually happens could be 300 kilometres long. If slippage occurs over a length of 300 kilometres, as is possible, a mega quake of magnitude 9 is the likely resulting in the death toll of 3,000,000 people. Professor Bhat emphatically said, there are no chances of 9.0 Mw earthquake in this region because such a great earthquake needs a rupture length of 1000-1300 km as was the case of many past earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 Mw or above.
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